Retirement Planning Advice and Financial Related Education by Barry Unterbrink, Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor

Wednesday, September 09, 2009

Options for Your Investing Benefit

Using Options to Enhance Your Portfolio

Understanding exchange-traded options can increase your financial returns and reduce risk in your investment portfolio. Stock options are an excellent way to help you achieve your money goals, both before and in retirement. Today we will look at using stock options to enhance your stock market profits, so get a sharp pencil and pad and follow along.

You probably already understand the basic option concept. If you were selling your car, and the buyer really wanted the car, but needed some time to raise the money, you may recommend an option. For a $50 payment from the buyer, you could grant the buyer 48 hours to raise the money to buy your car for $2,000. You are obligated to not sell the car to anyone else before that time. You are the seller of the option. The buyer of the option has the RIGHT, but not the obligation, to BUY your car for $2,000 in the next 2 days, or he may walk away from the deal, thus losing his $50. This arrangement places some risk on both parties - the buyer will lose $50 if he does not buy your car, but he has 'bought' himself some time with his option, to buy the car at a pre-set price. The seller gets to keep the option "premium" of $50, but is prevented from selling the car to anyone else for two days (another buyer may offer $2,400 and he has to reject that offer, and all others during the two day time period). Okay, let's discuss how options work when buying and selling stocks.

Basically, stock options work in a similar way, and your involvement with buyers and sellers is handled seamlessly by the options exchange. The options exchanges settle all the money and stock amounts for you through your brokerage or investment account. With options, your goals will dictate which type of strategy you should employ. In its simplified form for this discussion here, the two types of options are CALLS or PUTS. A call is a right by the owner to BUY a stock at a preset price within a certain time frame; a put is an option by the owner to sell at a certain price and time. Let's run through an example using recent real world prices for a CALL option strategy. You buy 1,000 shares of Bank of America stock for $16.00 last month. You are favorable on the company, hoping that they continue to execute their strategy and climb out of this banking mess. You envision perhaps $20 as a target price early next year. At $17.00 a share now, you are willing to sell your shares at $20 in January, 2010. You could wait for the $20 price and realize a $4 per share gain. Alternatively, you could SELL a January $20 call option on the options exchange, giving someone the RIGHT to buy your shares at $20. Remember, above I told you the "owner" of a call option can buy at the $20 price, this term is the option exercise price. Since you are the seller, you must deliver 1,000 shares to the buyer any time up 'till the option expiration date. Your sale of the options as a "seller" results in a CREDIT of $120 per option contract ($1,200 credit for 10 contracts, since each option contract covers 100 shares of stock). Now consider you ledger worksheet after your 10 options have been sold ...
1,000 shares of Bank of America stock bought at $16.00 per share = $16,000
> Sold 10 January $20 call options at $120 <1,200>
> Adjusted cost for your 1,000 shares of stock $14,800

Follow me here: If the shares of Bank of America are higher than $20 by the expiration date of the call options on January 15th), the buyer or owner of your call option that you sold will
exercise that option to buy your 1,000 shares at $20. Why? Because he can then immediately sell them for more in the market. By selling the option right, you have capped the amount of gain you can realize on your stock during the 4 month period. That's the trade-off you've agreed to. If BAC is $20 or below, then the option buyer will just walk away and the option will expire
worthless. Zero. He's lost $1,200. You keep his $1,200 either way.

So why do this? It takes two to tango in options, buyer and seller. By lowering your cost from $16.00 to $14.80 by selling the options, you have added some additional profit into your ownership of BAC shares - about 7% more in 4 months. You get to keep your 1,000 shares if they are under $20, and can then sell them or employ another strategy. Suppose BAC shares do not move above $20 for the next 6 months after Jan,15-2010? ... you could keep the shares and sell the $20 Call options expiring in April and July 2010.
You should now see that the options premiums that you collect of $1,200 every 4 months can also act as an additional income you can invest or spend. If you are an investor, and have never been taught this subject, then you need to call me to explain how this strategy may fit into your overall investing goals. I have elder clients over 70 who employ this strategy using blue chip stocks; hundreds of stocks have options traded on them.

Many variations exist with options. Remember PUT options mentioned above? They can help protect your portfolio from losses and protect a profit you've earned. That topic will be addressed in my next blog post, so stay tuned.

~Barry Unterbrink

Monday, July 20, 2009

Retirement - Will I Run Out of Money?

Will I run out of money in Retirement?

Most likely, our greatest fear as we are nearing or in retirement can be stated in 8 simple words; "Will I run out of money in retirement?" I can see the wrinkled nose and sweaty palms start to kick in as the stress levels rise after someone asks that question. Moreover, it's not an easy quantifiable answer. It's better addressed as "it depends" since it is dependant on various moving parts such as interest rates, inflation, withdrawals, etc. that muddies the income and savings waters.

As a Retirement Counselor, I have to sit back, take a deep breath, and then start to outline the events and circumstances that "could" result in a shortfall of money during your retirement. In this blog post, I will explain a few of these, along with some 'traps' and 'potholes' to look out for on the road to (and in) retirement.

First off, "running out of money in retirement" needs a proper definition. Do you mean running your investments and savings plans to zero? Or do you mean running out of INCOME that those investments can produce? Or is the better question still, "will my current lifestyle be reduced in future years by my choice of investments today", or "how can my current plan to live in retirement be re-worked so I increase my odds of not running our of money" You have to be specific with your question to allow your advisor to give you a more specific answer based on the economic assumptions and historical outcomes.

Once your question is framed in an succinct manner, next you must consider what you are comfortable doing. What is your experience, temperament and willing risk level? Follow me here. If you're a saver and like bonds and CD's, and think stocks are risky, then say that. If your retirement plan owned mutual funds and they worked out, then you can stomach some risk of owning stock-based investments . Where I find most investors get side-tracked is when they do things that are really against their nature or experience, and they allow emotions to color their thinking, often to their detriment. Also, they don't think things through money-wise or they think too much and change their strategy so often that no undertaking has a chance at success. Let's look at some numbers and options that could help you with your retirement planning.

Consider a retirement portfolio (IRA, brokerage account, etc.) that contains $50,000 in bonds and $50,000 in stocks. The stocks are high quality and pay dividends equal to 2% per year. The bond portion pays 5% in interest income. So that's $1,000 from stock dividends plus $2,500 in bond dividends totalling $3,500 income per year. Not bad; that's close to $300/month in income. If the bonds and stocks continue to pay, then it's fairly safe that your income will stay level, or even rise over time as the stock companies increase their dividends if business does well.

Appreciation vs. Income: Where investors go awry is when they confuse 'appreciation' with 'income'. Appreciation is the rise in value of a stock, bond or mutual fund. Income is the earning of dividends or interest from a stock or bond or mutual fund. From my example, what could happen to de-rail your efforts and lead you to running out of money prematurely? Answer: Spending more than you earn.

Suppose your stocks go up in value 25%, to $62,500, and the bonds stay at $50,000. Now you have $112,500 total, right? You may think - OK, now I'll take $1,000 more from my account each year since I've made some money in my stocks - you now take $4,500, or
$375 a month. Whoa there big spender! Where are you getting the extra $1,000? You have to sell some stock(s) or bond(s) to get it ... you are now spending your principal, since your dividends and interest are still $3,500 per year. Spending beyond what your portfolio
earns is spending your principal. For every $1,000 in stock you sell, you are reducing your future income by $20/year (2% of $1,000, and $50/yr. for every $1,000 in bonds sold). It's emotionally warm to think that way in a bull market, but how 'bout when the 25%+ bear
market hits, (we just had one) and your account is now down to $87,500 ($50,000 bonds + $37,500 stocks). De-rail your retirement pothole #1: you will never run out of principal if you don't spend any. Rule: 1a: If you decide to spend principal in the good times, be
prepared to stop spending principal in the bad times. Remember: income from dividends and interest is fairly stable. Appreciation from stocks and bonds is not stable, and cannot be relied upon year to year. Better idea: when stocks rise, move some of that appreciation (gain) to the bonds; now you will earn more income - 5% from the bonds vs. 2% from the stocks.

Taxes and Inflation: The second area of real imporance ignored by most investors, the media and and to some extent by the investment companies, is the effects of inflation and taxes on your retirement money. It's what you keep that counts. We all hate taxes and the darn tax code is changed so often by Congress that hardly anyone can keep up with it. Inflation is a bit easier to figure out. To keep the example easy, say you are earning 5% on your combined stock
and bond portfolio. Taking 15% in taxes away, you now earn 4.25%. Now subtract 3% inflation, and you're left with 1.25% - not much of a gain now, is it? De-rail your retirement pothole #2: be aware of the inflation and tax hits that will occur when you design your retirement income plan.

Maximum withdrawal rates. Multiple studies on this topic have been penned in the last 25 years, and the consensus is a 4% to 4.5% rate of withdrawal would prevent running out of money during a 30 year retirement time frame using 50% stocks/50% bonds. This plan does not consider principal vs. income like above. You take your starting account value and withdraw 4 -4.50% year after year. Another plan I have seen put forth is to withdraw your portfolio's total return (appreciation + income) after subtracting the inflation rate. For instance, your portfolio gains 10% for the year (8% appreciation + 2% income); you can withdraw 7% that year. Why? Because if you earn 10% and inflation is 3%, then you are leaving that 3% gain in the portfolio to offset inflation in the portfolio that you will need next year. That would take some mental math on your part, because you would adjust your income each year depending on your portfolio value and the cost of living (inflation) from the prior year. Where this plan could backfire is when your portfolio loses money, such as last year, so that no withdrawals would be taken. Can you put your retirement income on hold and await better times-probably not. De-rail your retirement pothole #3: Be flexible; work out more than one plan for your retirement income, using more than one portfolio or investment.

Finally, remember - I've used one example of a 50%-50% portfolio mix today. You may own other investments that guarantee your income, such as a pension, social security or an income annuity. The safer the guarantee, the more choices you will generally have with your remaining investments.

Bonus questions & FREE Retirement Calculator. If you earn 5% each year on your portfolio, and withdraw 7% of your principal each year, plus a 4% increase each year to offset
inflation, in what year will your account reach zero? Answer: 15 years.
Reply to this blog by clicking on the comment link below, or send me an e-mail to: barry@stetsonwealthmanagement.com and I'll send your paper retirement planning calculator by mail or pdf file.

I hope you've gleaned some useful information today.

Barry Unterbrink
Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor; Portfolio Manager
(954) 719-1151

Friday, July 10, 2009

Saving Your Retirement (Plan)



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Barry Unterbrink, Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor