The Anniversary of The Bear Market's End

6 March 2015

Today marks the 6 year anniversary of the bear market in stocks that ended in 2009. Today, a day in which the stock market showed us its worst day of this relatively new year.

Set off by the banking crisis and sky-high real estate prices and a myriad of banking system shenanigans - lending in particular - 2008 was the full year of "fear and carnage" where many surmised that the USA as we knew it was finished; kaput ! Third world status folks. The stock market fell 38% in 2008.

Well, we know that American doesn't go down without a dog-fight. We're the envy of the world, with a diverse economy and blessed with a geography that yields plentiful harvests for consumption and export. That does not guarantee, however, immunity from booms and busts with asset prices. Today could be the start of the next bear market of 20-30-40 percent down. We don't know, but we can prepare.

From peak to trough, near 14,000 in October 2007, the Dow Jones fell 55%. This ranked very high in the history of bear markets. It took 5-1/2 years to get back to even, in early 2013!

I've been preaching diversification here in the 'blogosphere' for many moons, while the financial media prefers to take this and spin it into drama to keep our eyeballs tuned in. Why such a fixation on stocks. News on bonds and commodities, exchange-traded funds, mutual funds are avoided as if long lost ugly step sisters. Am I missing something? Jim Cramer and CNBC, are you listening?

Bonds and gold are very important in keeping your financial portfolio healthy when stocks are getting massacred. But you won't hear this on your financial news channel. No doubt due to the revenue generated from buying and selling stocks, which is much more than buying bonds.

Well let me tell you, you should strongly consider a diversified portfolio during the next bear market, which may start when we're not ready. Whilst stocks fell in half in 2007-2009, government bonds GAINED 30%, and Gold gained 27%. A three pronged strategy of stock, bonds and gold returned a LOSS of just 3% while using a four-legged attack using cash (Treasury bills) LOST you 1%. I think losing 3% is better than losing 55% of your money, correct?

I am not inferring that the next bear market will be like the last one. It probably won't be. But I bet you that one asset class (stocks, bonds, Gold or commodities) will have a BIG positive impact on your portfolio return and values.

It's better to base your decisions on historical findings vs. the opinions of men with perhaps misguided or biased projections and forecasts.
Post a comment and your e-mail below and I will e-mail you an interesting chart: "The Psychology of a Market Cycle", a mental health view of most investors.

Thanks for reading!

Barry L. Unterbrink
Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor www.stetsonwealthmanagement.com
www.twitter.com/allthingsmoney

(954) 719-1151

Preparing for the Next Bear Market

Are You and Your Investments Ready for the Next Bear Market?
The single most important question to ask yourself (and your financial advisor)

Well, the stock and bond markets are behaving themselves rather nicely. In fact, the financial markets in general have provided some nice returns for investors the past couple of years. Sure, there have been setbacks and some hiccups along the way; no market goes straight up for very long! In fact, the stock market has evidenced pullbacks ranging from 7% to 18% since early 2010. I will call those periods "corrections" within a bull market.

 I feel that we have been lulled into our current optimistic thinking because of the brevity of any of these 6 corrections. I state this because in the past three years, it's been just a couple weeks or at most - less than a full quarter (3 months) in which stock prices fell before then recovering and rising again. So, if you receive your statements in the mail quarterly, then you probably wouldn't notice these small downturns - even monthly it may not jump off the page at you. But they are important, since the stock market does not operate according to any man-made calendar, and a prolonged downturn in stock prices will occur - we just don't know when. The terrible 50% losses in the 2007-2009 bear market are now distant memories - but there's danger in not learning a lesson from that history; and we're no smarter if we don't learn from past mistakes and errors, agreed?

You and your advisor should understand the financial concept that I have described above. It has a name: it's called drawdown - and it is very important. It's all about inherent risks, and the behavior of your portfolio through the tough times when stock prices are falling. Since your portfolio will hold various stocks, mutual funds, bonds and perhaps cash, commodities, each category will behave differently. But your overall portfolio will have a "number" that represents its volatility versus the stock market. Without turning on more technical speak, your drawdown number is the maximum loss of value to your portfolios, measured in percent or dollars.

We'll use four main categories of assets that your could own, and that I advocate to build a diversified portfolio. Drawdown is represented as a percentage of your account value from the high point reached on any one day, so I will use a real world example here to illustrate, using the last nasty bear market in stocks as our test period: October 2007 to March 2009. Here are the results:

100% stocks (represented by the S&P 500 stock index): a drawdown of 54% (loss)
50% stocks / 50% bonds (represented by long term Treasury bonds); a drawdown of 19% (loss)
One-third of your portfolio is stocks, bonds and GOLD; a drawdown of 19% (loss)
Four way split: stocks, bonds, gold and cash money fund: a drawdown of 14% (loss)

So, you may be thinking now, and questioning - "it appears better to diversify because I will reduce my drawdown". That is correct! "But I have still lost lots of money in this bear market, so I'm not happy".

My reply, "No you didn't. At least not entirely!"

Drawdown, and the gains or losses of your portfolio are not the same. They are different, so follow along: to recap - drawdown is the maximum loss to your portfolio if you were to view your portfolio on the worst day during the period (it's one day when you are performing the worst from the beginning point (October, 2007). If you held all stocks (like the S&P 500 stock index), your worst day was March 6th, 2009; a 54% loss, on the last day of the end point. But for Gold, Bond and Cash, the timeframes are different. Understand?

For instance, gold increased $200 an ounce in this entire time span, but it was not straight up. It declined 30% in one seven month period. Bonds, they declined 20% at one point in time, and ended up losing 8% for the entire period.

Finally, here are the results (gains and losses) for this last bear market in stocks, if you were diversified across the investment categories we reported on above, and your portfolio performed exactly in line with the categories I used:

All stocks: loss of 54% of your money (ouch, that hurts; retirement delayed)!
50 / 50 in stocks and long-term government bonds: a loss of 12% of your money (whew, I can surely recover from that).
One third each in stocks/bonds/gold: a GAIN of less than one percent: (I live to fight another day!)

4-way split: stocks/bonds/gold/cash: a GAIN of 2% for the entire period (when's the next bull market start?)

The mixture of adding these three classes or "categories" to your stocks will GREATLY affect your gains and losses over time and through various market cycles that we're all subject to as investors; both in up markets and down markets. When your portfolio and retirement accounts experience drawdown of 25-30-40 percent, you are very susceptible to making very poor decisions - like selling out near the worst time, and then staying out when the markets start back up.

Finally, the takeaway here is to understand your risks in your portfolio, and to be on the same page with your financial advisor. If that person cannot communicate to you your potential risks with your money (projected drawdown and losses) when the next bear market arrives, then you may be in for some unpleasant surprises to your pocket-book and mental health. What's the maxim: "plan for the best, put prepare for the worst"? What's your plan?

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Cordially,

Barry L. Unterbrink

Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor
www.stetsonwealthmanagement.com
www.twitter.com/allthingsmoney

(954) 719-1151

　

Quarterly Overview and Strategies to End 2014; Social Security Hikes

During the third quarter, stocks, bonds, and commodities decided to part company performance-wise, resulting in a very mixed bag for investors in moderate growth and balanced portfolios. The large stocks (S&P 500 Index) managed to eke out a small gain of +1.13%, and that was about the only bright spot with stock-based market indexes. Mid-capitalization stocks fell 4%, Small cap stocks, -7%. Bonds were a brighter spot, as longer-term bonds gained 3%, while shorter durations were breakeven. Overseas markets did not help US investors much either; developed markets were off 6% and emerging markets down 4%. So far in October, which historically is the worst month to stay in the stock market, large stocks are +1%, while smaller stocks are ahead a tad over 2% not bad with four days to go!

Commodities across the board of grains, metals and energy moved lower in the quarter. In fact, consumer prices fell 0.2% in August, a first in 18 months! Energy, natural gas, gasoline all contributing – finally a break at the pump I say. I bought gasoline in South Carolina mid-month for $2.74. The year-over-year gain of inflation registered a +1.7% thru September, so that’s an important figure to have in hand. Why? Because, interest rates are very low, and safer, fixed income investments are not covering the rise in consumer prices. Some are, but you won’t find them at your local bank or credit union. It’s my job to find investment vehicles that can beat the inflation bogey without undue risk to invested principle. Read on.

 

Where to Look, What to Consider Now

I am finding some value with no risk to your principal in 3 to five year CD-type fixed annuities at rates between 2.3% to 3.15%. These are fixed and guaranteed rates with tax deferral until you cash out, and they will cover some tax and inflation along the way. Consider them as part of your "safe money" savings.

 

If you are inclined to a bit more risk in the stock and bond markets, or have retirement plans that hold the same, then you should consider re-balancing your funds to reduce risk of loss. For instance, year to date, a 100% stock portfolio is ahead about 8%, while a portfolio diversified between stocks, bonds, cash and precious metals is up 7% - with less risk and less drawdown in your account value. Ask me if you need a portfolio review; it could be very worthwhile and profitable to understand this tool at your disposal.

Social Security News for 2015 Beneficiaries, click on:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-social-security-changes-coming-141022186.html

 

Stay tuned as we enter the last 10 weeks of 2014. I promise to get the news out to you in faster fashion the next report.

Thanks for reading, and stay safe and healthy!

~Barry

www.stetsonwealthmanagement.com
 

Barry L. Unterbrink
Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor
(954) 719-1151
(954) 642-2253 fax
Fort Lauderdale, Florida