Retirement Planning Advice and Financial Related Education by Barry Unterbrink, Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor

Wednesday, March 09, 2022

Gold and Oil Doing the Heavy Lifting

Tuesday, March 8th, 2022

Gold and Oil prices have rose sharply both this year and since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24th.

Crude oil and gasoline prices rose well ahead of the war for varying reasons; the war just exacerbated the rise as supply challenges lie ahead if we cut off Russian supplied oil.

Gold has risen, in my opinion, due to the political uncertainty with both the war, and the high inflation - up 7.5% year over year - here in America. Gold is seen as a safe haven when a lot of assets are behaving poorly. Gold has proven to be a store of value for centuries. 

One way to look at investing is to own what is causing you the pain in your daily living. Gas prices are moving higher; own a few oil companies, or an index of oil and gas companies. Two I prefer are XLE and FENY. XLE is the Energy Select Sector Fund. It holds energy and exploration and drilling operators: Think Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Marathon Oil, Halliburton, Devon Energy. FENY is the Fidelity Investments version of XLE. It essentially owns the same stocks, as they both have similar weightings in the big oil companies.

Both are exchange traded - not mutual funds - so you can buy and sell them like stocks on the New York Stock Exchange. If you prefer individual stocks for some reason (taxes, dividends), you could buy the TOP 4 stocks in each investment, and you would own half the exchange traded fund: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Conono-Phillips (COP), Chevron (CVX) and EOG Resources (EOG). Since the wars start, XLE is up 14%, while FENY gained 15%.

Gold sputtered last year, losing 4% in the bullion price, after two good years of +18% and +23% in 2019 and 2020. Stocks were the place to be then. This year, Gold has gained investors confidence again. 

Gold Kruggerand 1 Ounce
It's not always fun seeing Gold prices 'sit' while bonds and stocks go up. We advocate holding 10% - 15% in Gold as an insurance policy against - well - wars and inflation. Gold trades today at $2,060 per ounce. It's up $135/ounce in 13 days since Vlad's invasion! It's knocking on the door of the all-time high of $2,071 during 2020. Bullion is harder to own and of course store. We again prefer the exchange funds: simply, SPDR Gold (GLD) stores its gold in London, SGOL has Switzerland Vaults, and PHYS is the Canadian Mints 'lock box' for that Gold exchange traded fund. Don't buy Gold mining stocks; they may not track Gold's price accurately. If you buy the bullion, stick with recognizable one ounce 'rounds' like the Kruggerand, pictured above, or the Canadian Maple Leaf. Gold bars and smaller denomination coins are marked up more. Expect a 4-5% mark up or mark down with the one ounce coin buys and sales.

So, as a diversified investor, let's recap the past couple of weeks with Stocks, Bonds, Oil and Gold. (Feb. 23rd thru March 8th).

        S&P 500 Index (stocks) ...........  down 1.3%
        Bonds (Long Term Treasury)..... up 1%
        Oil and Gas Exchange Funds .... up 14%
        Gold bullion / exchange Fund ... up  8%

Will Gold and Oil hold onto their gains made the past month? We'll see. If Gold and Oil do retreat, we look for stocks to move higher, or Bonds to stablize. There are a lot of scenarios that COULD play out favorable for Gold and Oil.

The gas pump price above was what I paid Monday for the premium gas. It costs me $0.20 a mile to move my SUV down the road at that price. So if I can make a little money from my Gold and Oil stocks, maybe I can feel (a bit) better at the pump next week ! Time will tell.

Thanks for reading!
Share as you so desire!

~Barry

P.S. If you type "GOLD" in the search box for this blog, you can view and read my other posts on Gold dating back a few years.





 

 


 

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Long Term Care Risks Loom Large in Retirement Planning

 Key Risks to Retirement Planning – Long Term Care

If you are retired, or considering retirement in the next few years, you may not have thought of ALL the risks that could affect your retirement once you stop working. Here are a few that could apply to you.

*  Retire too early and you may run out of money later.


* Improper structure of your money -  may leave you open to market losses - or not enough income to pay your bills in the future.


* Low interest rates when you retire, so you can’t get a decent safe rate of return to live comfortably in retirement.


* Being too conservative in retirement - that will not grow your nest egg to keep up with the cost of living (inflation) during your retirement years. Especially important now with 6% inflation headlines in the news.

* Taxes - They can change depending on who needs your money; and how fast they need it … think Uncle Sam, the I.R.S. and Congress.

These are all valid and ‘front-and-center’ real concrete concerns facing us all in retirement.

Have you thought about your healthcare in retirement? That’s a real uncertainty, wouldn’t you agree? Don’t you think understanding your health options is very important? The Affordable Health Care Act and Medicare open enrollment period is now for many American’s. Have you reviewed your health care options for 2022?

Long Term Care. Have you figured on long term care coverage and costs for those services you may need someday.

Long Term Care risks are HUGE in comparison to the investment risks cited above. They are not generally understood, and quite frankly – few wish to talk about their physical challenges later in life. It probably won’t come up at tomorrow’s Thanksgiving Dinner – but I hope this puts it in your mind to think more on it and ask those you care about if they have considered it.

With a 7 in 10 chance of folks age 65+ needing some type of long-term care during their lifetimes, this is a much bigger threat to our financial health than the stock market’s performance or where interest rates will be in the future. Agree?

How Much Does LTC Cost?

That depends on your location and your level of care. Also, the hours needed for your care. A helpful tool I use for folks is provided by Nationwide Insurance Company. Their app is at:
https://tinyurl.com/vjxsbw77  You can select your state, metro-area, and hours needed and it will show you the cost for the various levels of care now and into the future: informal care at home, assisted living and nursing home, etc. Question: If one spouse spends $5,000-$7,000 a month for LTC (which my father did this year before passing) how long before that would start to affect your estate, your income, your legacy? Some conditions that would trigger LTC need are shown here. You should add cognitive impairment to the list: Alzheimer's, Dementia.

Some sources have likened the long-term care challenge to a pandemic, with drastic ramifications on our health care system as more people without the resources to pay for it may end up on Government entitlement programs such as Medicaid.

The state of Washington has fired the first salvo in “forced” Long Term Care coverage for its residents. This year, the legislature passed The Long Term Care Trust Act, a law that mandates every worker obtain long term care insurance coverage, or face a payroll tax if they don’t. It starts 1/1/2022.

Washington State will cover up to $36,500 of costs for those who need assistance with bathing, dressing, walking, or taking their medications, to name a few conditions. The math on their plan: $100/day for 365 days.  For someone earning $100,000 a year, their payroll tax would be $580/year. A fairly good deal for starters, but hardly all-inclusive for every health time-frame / need. By design as most insurance works, it would burden young, healthy workers who are in effect paying for older, perhaps sicker workers. Look for other states to try similar measures / laws to encourage people to get their own LTC coverages and avoid an on-going tax or other levy.

Types of Plans

The most common type of plan pre-2000 was the Stand-Alone LTC plan, which was affordable, and was a use-it-or-lose it design. Just like car or home insurance. In the late 90’s hybrid plans were introduced, combining life insurance or annuities with LTC, which boosted the benefits considerably in that the policies had a cash value that could be used if you did not need LTC, or left to your heirs when you died. These “qualified” LTC plans have generous government support.

Up to $410/day can be used tax-free from these plans to pay for home care / community care services from your policy. An investor would need deep pockets to private pay for LTC dollar for dollar. Investments could be needed sold, IRA’s tapped, taxes paid on the 401k money. It’s not a pretty picture, folks to private pay down your estate and assets.

Where to Go Next?

Find out more of the basics of today’s Long-Term Care insurance. Contact me and arrange an on-line meeting with me. I have resources that can be shared to educate you also on the plans for you and your loved ones.

What Am I Doing?

My LTC insurance plan started in April, at age 63. It’s a cash indemnity plan (cash paid to me to spend as I wish) of $2,500 / month for 3 years; 90 day waiting period. Death benefit $60,000 if no LTC used, and a cash value component to use while I am alive or get back if I quit. This should cover partially my LTC needs. My daughter is enrolled in a nursing program, so maybe she’s my future caregiver? In a perfect world: that’ll be my plan B or C or D perhaps.

Thanks for reading, and HAPPY THANKSGIVING !

Barry L.Unterbrink
Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor
Unterbrink@usa.net
(954) 560-3622


 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

Monday, September 20, 2021

Summer Ends; Autumn Markets Uncertainty Ahead?

By the time you read this, Summer will be winding down and Autumn will be starting - Wednesday, Sept. 22.

The World Stock Markets fell fairly hard today, Monday - to start the week.

Ranging from India's market which fell about 1% to Italy's market - down 2.7%, the developled countries all saw selling pressure.

Here in the USA markets, stocks fell around the 2% range on the polular Dow Jones Industrials (30 stocks), down 1.8%, the S&P 500, down 1.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite (3,000 stocks), which lost 2.1%.

It was not all that bad outside of stocks Monday. Interest rates FELL a bit, causing bond prices to rise. Ten and thirty year Treasury security yields fell about 6 basis points (a basis point is 1/100 of one percent). The prices of the 10 and 30 year bond rose 1/2 percent and 1.25% respectively, offsetting stock losses somewhat.

Gold also had a decent day, adding $12/ounce or about 3/4 percent.

There are more than a couple reasons that are now in sight of investors to cause them unrest and uncertaintly with the direction of stock prices (which have been up, up and away) thus far this year.

1> Debt Limit - The Government's annual brouhaha on the decision to raise the limit to borrow more money to finance its contiued operation. As if $28.5 Trillion was not enough debt! A funding plan must be agreed upon by Sept. 30th to avoid a shutdown of non-essential services.

2>  Hot Inflation numbers - the higher costs of living are a real concern to many households. Inflation is keeping some from spending as items like food, fuel and rent escalate sharply, taking more of one's budget.

3> Political risks - Democrat or Republican, you would agree that Joe Biden and Co. have many 'fires' to put out to keep America safe and our citizenry happy. Immigration, jobs, the deficit, terrorism - crop up to challenge most presidents - but rarely ALL of them in a short time-frame like now.

The timing of the Bear markets for stocks is also suspect and perhaps due for a breather.
Consider the three asset classes of Stocks, Bonds and Gold.

Bonds and Gold have underwent their own bear markets since 2008.

Bonds, 12% bear markets in both 2009 and 2013
Gold, a 40% three year bear market during 2013-2015
Stocks, a 50% bear market during 2007 - 2009*

Are stock prices due for a pullback or the start of a bear market just due to the historical odds? Here is the yearly data in table form. I don't think any market forecaster would be surprised if stocks declined 10 to 20 percent or more from these levels.

As stocks were falling in the underperforming assets, the money from the selling would most likely buy into bonds, or Gold, or sit in Cash for some time. That's how markets work. The money finds a new home somewhere investors feel more productive. If you can allocate your portfolio around these bull and bear markets, you will no doubt do better than an ALL stock, bond, Gold, or cash investor.

Knowing the history of the markets does give you insight as to what MAY occur in the future. Every bear market unfolds differently, but the fall in prices and rise in prices of your investment choices ALWAYS occurs.

Hopefully you found this helpful and can think of your entire portfolio with more clarity and some better decision-making.

Reach out to me should you have questions or desire a review of your situation and goals.

Thanks for reading!
~Barry Unterbrink
Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor
Email: Unterbrink@usa.net

* I am purposely not including the 2020 Bear Market in March, as it was not a protracted Bear Market, but a painful one none-the-less.