The year is quickly coming to a close, and Christmas and Holiday planning is taking center stage this week and into the New Year. Wall Street is giving investors a little more joy also.
For investors, the gifts have come early and often, as the stock, bond and commodity markets have all risen in this final 3 months. If next week just holds steady in the stock market, gains in the +15% to +19%, to +22% should hold for the major averages: Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite respectively. That'll cap off the third year of double-digit gains!
For investors, the gifts have come early and often, as the stock, bond and commodity markets have all risen in this final 3 months. If next week just holds steady in the stock market, gains in the +15% to +19%, to +22% should hold for the major averages: Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite respectively. That'll cap off the third year of double-digit gains!
In the 4th quarter (October - December) thus far stocks have risen just slightly in the 3.5% to 4.8% range using the above averages noted. Sector wise, most sectors followed that pattern of the general market. Healthcare is up 12% so far, an outlier for sure.
What's made us the most money has been Gold and Silver, via the Exchange Traded Funds we own that hold physical bullion. Gold has added +16% here in the quarter, while Silver has run like a scalded dog; up 53% in price since October 1st.
What's made us the most money has been Gold and Silver, via the Exchange Traded Funds we own that hold physical bullion. Gold has added +16% here in the quarter, while Silver has run like a scalded dog; up 53% in price since October 1st.
Then, I was fortunate for December to replace CEF with both of the pure play funds GLD (gold), and SLV (silver), favoring Silver (15%) over Gold (5%).
Call it smarts or good luck, silver has greatly outperformed Gold here in December; it ran from $56 to $60, then through $70 earlier this week to register a +26% gain - just this month. Gold is up +6.6%, so it's no slouch either. With a combined 20% of assets in Gold/Silver combined now, this is the difference maker to end the year.
I'll report on the full year 2025 in my next post in January, but for the November - December model performance, it is at +6.8%, and that's versus the all stock S&P 500 Index's gain of +0.86%. A quick back-of-the-napkin calculation shows that I will beat the stock market (S&P 500) substantially this year with the Gold / Silver investments doing the heavy lifting. And holding 10-20% in cash or T-bills most of this year reduced the risks also if stocks and gold both fell.
We'll see what 2026 holds. The Fed's 0.25% interest rate cut Dec. 10th was a confidence booster to traders, but there is lots to consider/worry on also; like a possible Government shutdown (again) next month, renewed inflation, sticky +6% mortgage rates, soon to report first quarter corporate earnings, geo-politics to name a few.
Wishing you a safe and fun Christmas tomorrow, joy and happiness to you and your loved ones, and a healthy New Year !
~Barry Unterbrink
Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor, since 1998
* a model portfolio is a guideline portfolio of securities set up to gauge performance over a period of time. It often cannot be followed exactly by all investors due to the timing of buys and sells, tax and liquidity considerations. My model portfolio starts each month with $100,000 in assets, distributed across Cash, stocks, bonds and commodities. It was launched 1/1/2018 by my late father Larry.
We'll see what 2026 holds. The Fed's 0.25% interest rate cut Dec. 10th was a confidence booster to traders, but there is lots to consider/worry on also; like a possible Government shutdown (again) next month, renewed inflation, sticky +6% mortgage rates, soon to report first quarter corporate earnings, geo-politics to name a few.
Wishing you a safe and fun Christmas tomorrow, joy and happiness to you and your loved ones, and a healthy New Year !
~Barry Unterbrink
Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor, since 1998
* a model portfolio is a guideline portfolio of securities set up to gauge performance over a period of time. It often cannot be followed exactly by all investors due to the timing of buys and sells, tax and liquidity considerations. My model portfolio starts each month with $100,000 in assets, distributed across Cash, stocks, bonds and commodities. It was launched 1/1/2018 by my late father Larry.
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