The Election Cycle & Stocks; Does it Deserve Attention?

The Election Cycle & Stocks: Does it Deserve Attention?

Markets are mixed in October
Hurricane Sandy through America a curve ball in the waning days of October, as the financial markets were re-opened on Halloween for a full session after two days of closure. Prices and yields were little changed. Historically, Octobers are difficult to pin down as to direction; but important inflection points do occur more often than not. Two months to go in this horse race.

The national election just adds to the uncertainty going forward. Here are some interesting election market stats* that I’m sharing this blog post. Of course, to base your voting on this one stat would be silly; vote based on your values and beliefs.
The one reliable indicator dating back to 1900 is that when the incumbent party wins the White House, the stock market rises quite nicely the next year.

                                                                         3 months after     12 months after
All Presidential elections since 1900                    +1.7%                 +6.4%
Incumbent party wins (17 times)                          +4.1%                 +9.8%
Incumbent party loses (11 times)                           -2.0%                +1.0%

Why is this? Mark Hulbert of MarketWatch theorizes that the numbers are influenced by the state of the economy; and whether it is IN, or about to SLIP into a recession as of Election Day. My take: Election Day is JUST a DAY. The economy ebbs and flows from expansion to contraction, boom to bust. To infer that a particular candidate would influence this cycle between specific dates is far-fetched. Every administration “inherits” the baggage of the prior team in Washington. That will not change. Surely credit will be claimed if it helps your cause. I have not heard it being used lately however by any candidate.

Be safe out there; remember to take your ID’s, polling address, reading glasses and other important stuff with you to vote. Good luck.

~Barry Unterbrink, CRPC
Fort Lauderdale, Florida

* Excerpts and data from Mark Hulbert; MarketWatch, Inc.

How To Bake a Better Investing Cake

How to Bake a Better Investing Cake
Designing an investment portfolio can be accomplished with success if you have the correct ingredients, follow the instructions, and remain disciplined. If you have a “homemade” recipe that’s been proven to work time after time – you are indeed ahead of the curve. Successful investing uses many of the same skills as baking a great cake.
I have never baked a cake from start to finish. I’ve helped people prepare to make a cake, and armed with bowls of sticky stuff and mixing whisks , assisted them with the work. A quick Internet search tells me I need sugar, eggs, milk, flour, etc. plus frosting to finish the job.

August Market-Linked CD's

Dear clients and friends:  
                                                                                             August 9 '12
The August Market-Linked CD offerings are interesting...the estimated caps on which the interest is paid are between 5% to 7%.

The commodity-linked CD this month featured below includes both GOLD and SILVER; CORN, NATURAL GAS, & WHEAT also - an excellent way to participate here without any risk to your deposit.
To get more information on these FDIC insured CD's, contact me at (954) 719-1151 , or reply to this e-mail. Thanks. Barry Unterbrink, Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor

Market-Linked Certificates of Deposit can be a smart solution in today’s environment.

With interest rates near historical lows, bonds and typical CDs no longer offer returns that can potentially outpace inflation.  Originally developed by Chase Manhattan bank in 1987, Market-Linked CDs (MLCDs) may be the solution you are looking for as one of the few principal-protected products still offering the potential for annual interest greater than 2.50%.
 
Potential benefits of MLCDs.
1.       Safety - Principal Protection.1
2.       Insurance - FDIC Insurance.2
3.       Potential - Historical interest paid = 2.75%.3
 
The Basics.
§  The issuing bank will return 100% of your principal at maturity.
§  Deposits are insured by the FDIC up to statutory limits, generally $250,000 per bank.
§  MLCDs pay interest each year based on the performance of stocks or commodities.4
§  Some Market-Linked CDs also offer minimum guaranteed interest (such as the one below).
§  If you need to sell your MLCDs prior to maturity the issuer will buy it back at the current market value.5
 
One Example.
§  Commodity Linked CD issued by Bank of the West.
§  Pays interest each year based on the performance of 10 Commodities (includes GOLD & SILVER,
§  Minimum interest will be at least 0.30% annually (GUARANTEED).
§  Maximum interest can be up to 6.5% annually (CAP).
§  This particular CD must be funded by August 24, 2012.
 
If you would like more information on MLCDs.
Please contact BARRY UNTERBRINK , Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor (954) 719-1151, barry@stetsonwealthmanagement.com (Fort Lauderdale, Florida)
 
The above summary is not intended to be an offer to purchase CDs.  Interested depositors should request full offering documents from their financial consultant.  1 MLCDs are 100% principal protected when held to maturity based on the credit strength of the issuer. 2 MLCDs are FDIC Insured up to statutory limits, which are described in detail in the offering documents, generally  up to $250,000 per bank, per account registration.  3 34 MLCDs on this platform have paid interest with an average payment of 2.75%, however past performance is not a prediction of future results as each MLCD offers different variables which will affect actual interest paid. 4 Interest is subject to a CAP.   5 If MLCDs are sold back to issuer prior to maturity, depositor may receive less or more than original deposit.