Model Portfolio Performance, 1Q, 2026

March financial markets experience a downturn in prices, but 1st quarter performance is positive for our Model Portfolio.

Just when we were getting comfortable and expecting another advancing month for stock prices; (they did gain for 10 of the last 11 months), and KAPOW - prices fell rather quickly starting March 1st after war was announced on IRAN by the United States and Israel on February 28th. Markets (Stock, Bond, Commodity), do not like uncertainty, so many investors sold; and the selling reinforced even more selling. At the recent lows for this move down, stocks have declined between 8.6% and 10.2% in about 4 weeks, measured by the Dow and S&P 500, near 8.75% down, and NASDAQ which lost the 10.2%. 

All stock market indices I follow, (about 20), FELL in March, right near the 5% loss area. In a BIG one day rally to end March, stock  prices shot up 2.5% to 3.8% on March 31st, which mitigated the monthly losses by quite a bit.

Still, as the Dow and S&P 500 entered March with just 1% to 2% gains for the combined January-February period, March erased those gains and left them both negative to end the 1st quarter (January thru March).

Our model portfolio, as reported last blog post, built up a comfortable gain during January-February of +8.7%. The March decline of -4.72% still left our Model positive and UP 3.57% for the 1st quarter. So, I am pleased with that result.

Here is the table of the year-to-date tally. 
 Model January,   +4.19%          SP500, +1.47%
 Model February, +4.33%          SP500,  -0.86%
 Model March,     -4.72%           SP500,  -5.20%

 The over-performance of the Model Portfolio was due to Gold and Silver rising in January and February. March gave back some of those gains, but not enough of them to turn the precious metals losers year-to-date. Recall that Gold ended last year at $4,308, then ended March at $4,670, so up by $360 or so.

What stood out from Gold's price action was that it FELL almost in line with stock prices when the war began. Gold did not aid performance during this period. It will not always move in the inverse direction from stocks; I've warned on that here in my blog.

My March Model Portfolio fell about at much as the S&P 500, because of Gold and Silver under-performing. In March it held Energy, Health Care and Industrial's are the SECTORS, and 15% cash.

As I finish this post here on Wednesday night April 8th, Gold has shot up over $100 an ounce in over-night trading, and is now hovering near $4,730.

I am keeping with the energy theme here in April, owning  also Materials, Utilities, and Gold and Silver, and a 20% allocation to cash or money market funds (or Treasury Bills) paying 3.4% to 3.6%.

I expect continued volatility in both stocks and commodities. The bigger question is: Are the low prices IN with the late March readings of 6,343 on the S&P 500 and $4,380 for Gold. The rallies of 7% and 8% off those lows has been swift. I'll be watching for signs that they hold before buying more.

Thanks for reading.

Warm Regards,

~Barry

 

 

 

 

 

2018 - 2025 Model Portfolio Performance

As promised last post, I've done the calcs on my Model Portfolio performance for last year, and wish to present this to all readers.

The end of last year, 2025 completed 8 years of using my model portfolio for investing, so the data covers 2018 through 2025. Here are the results in a table which I will discuss next. They are cumulative results over those time-frames.

  
 My model portfolio had an excellent 2025, up 23.15%. The fully invested S&P 500 that we compare against rose +27.6%. My table above also shows the 3, 5 and 8-year performances of Model vs. the market. 

The goal of my model portfolio is to offer investors a diversified way to allocate their money to attempt to achieve positive returns over time, outpacing inflation to grow their money, without a large draw-down in principle. Constructing portfolios for over 40 years for all types of investors, I'll state that this 'system' should suit 90% of all investors who can bear some risk with their principal. It should be used with other investments and savings based outside of this using your risk profile.

The S&P 500 gained more than my model portfolio in all time periods, as the stock market rose quite a bit over that time; up 150% in 8 years. My model rose +96%. My model portfolio normally holds three types of investments each month; Stocks, Bonds and Gold. It also owns cash that is not invested in the three assets. 

So usually, in an up market period, the Model will lag the stock market, depending on the performance of the bonds and Gold. This diversification aids in the smoothing out of the Models performance, so as not to experience big price swings up and draw-down. In a down market, the model portfolio usually declines less, or even gains - due to its cash and bond holdings. Also, Gold tends to move opposite stocks in down (bear) markets, offsetting stock losses.

That leads to the next point I mentioned in the last paragraph; draw-down. What does this look like? The table below shows the results of my diversified Model portfolio vs. the all stock S&P 500 Index. 

There were three notable periods in the 8-years with substantial sell-offs in stock prices; ranging from -14% to -20% on a monthly ending basis. The largest draw-down on a monthly basis was -6% to -12%. So what's the big deal you say? When you lose 20% of your values - on paper - you tend to make 'foolish' decisions; like selling out. That $500,000 nest egg is now a $400,000 one in just three months in early 2020.

The math to get back to even bears another salient stat. A 12% loss needs a +13.6% gain to get back to even. A 20% decline needs a +25% gain to get back to even. Some bear market's prior to 2020 have been more severe, but I don't have data on that to compare with my model portfolio.

The summary lesson here is to lessen the risk of owning stocks by owning other investments that are less correlated with stocks; like bonds and Gold. 

Being up 150% in 8 years sounds like a no-brainer accomplishment by just owning the S&P 500 Index and never selling IF you have the stomach for the draw-downs. A more balanced approach to consider is diversification around your stock holdings to reduce risk, smaller draw-downs, some liquidity for withdrawals, and a better nights sleep. On an annual compound growth basis, here's the tally.

 S&P 500 Index;  +12.14% average annual growth
 Model Portfolio;  + 8.80%  average annual growth

Call it +9% model vs. +12% S&P in round numbers. Inflation averaged +3.47% per year over the 8 years, so both showed positive gains after consumer price rises were factored in.

I hope this helps you understand my Model Portfolio strategy better.

I'll try to update this every 3 months or so on this blog. 

Thanks for reading!

~Barry

P.S. January was a banner month here to start 2026; My Model gained +4.19% vs. the S&P 500 at +1.47%, chiefly due to the big rise in Gold and Silver prices on those investments held in the model portfolio. February calculations are not ready just yet; I'll report them end of March to sum up the 1st quarter of this year.

This is my 154th blog post in 20 years, having started on Google blogger in December, 2005. The Dow Industrial Average stood at 10,717 back then! Time flies they say!

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My Year-end Financial Thoughts, Performance

The year is quickly coming to a close, and Christmas and Holiday planning is taking center stage this week and into the New Year. Wall Street is giving investors a little more joy also.

For investors, the gifts have come early and often, as the stock, bond and commodity markets have all risen in this final 3 months. If next week just holds steady in the stock market, gains in the +15% to +19%, to +22% should hold for the major averages: Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite respectively. That'll cap off the third year of double-digit gains!

 

In the 4th quarter (October - December) thus far stocks have risen just slightly in the 3.5% to 4.8% range using the above averages noted. Sector wise, most sectors followed that pattern of the general market. Healthcare is up 12% so far, an outlier for sure.

What's made us the most money has been Gold and Silver, via the Exchange Traded Funds we own that hold physical bullion. Gold has added +16% here in the quarter, while Silver has run like a scalded dog; up 53% in price since October 1st. 

 

Our model portfolio*, last reported on in my November 4th post with October's numbers, experienced a nice November gain of +2.10%, due to the Gold/Silver fund we owned, ticker CEF, up 11% in November.
 
Then, I was fortunate for December to replace CEF with both of the pure play funds GLD (gold), and SLV (silver), favoring Silver (15%) over Gold (5%). 

Call it smarts or good luck, silver has greatly outperformed Gold here in December; it ran from $56 to $60, then through $70 earlier this week to register a +26% gain - just this month. Gold is up +6.6%, so it's no slouch either. With a combined 20% of assets in Gold/Silver combined now, this is the difference maker to end the year.  

 

I'll report on the full year 2025 in my next post in January, but for the November - December model performance, it is at +6.8%, and that's versus the all stock S&P 500 Index's gain of +0.86%. A quick back-of-the-napkin calculation shows that I will beat the stock market (S&P 500) substantially this year with the Gold / Silver investments doing the heavy lifting. And holding 10-20% in cash or T-bills most of this year reduced the risks also if stocks and gold both fell. 

We'll see what 2026 holds. The Fed's 0.25% interest rate cut Dec. 10th was a confidence booster to traders, but there is lots to consider/worry on also; like a possible Government shutdown (again) next month, renewed inflation, sticky +6% mortgage rates, soon to report first quarter corporate earnings, geo-politics to name a few.

Wishing you a safe and fun Christmas tomorrow, joy and happiness to you and your loved ones, and a healthy New Year !

~Barry Unterbrink
Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor, since 1998

 * a model portfolio is a guideline portfolio of securities set up to gauge performance over a period of time. It often cannot be followed exactly by all investors due to the timing of buys and sells, tax and liquidity considerations. My model portfolio starts each month with $100,000 in assets, distributed across Cash, stocks, bonds and commodities. It was launched 1/1/2018 by my late father Larry.