Stocks Rally BIG in April; Model Performance in Line YTD.

 In my last post on April 8th, stocks were crawling out of a dismal March, where the Dow and S&P 500 each lost 5%. March 30th was the low in prices, and they did not fall further.

The BIG rise in prices off that low are quite outstanding. The Dow is up +12%, while the technology heavy S&P 500 is +19%. The S&P is ahead more due to its heavy concentration in tech stocks (35% vs. 17% for the Dow). 

The April rally was the big difference-maker in the year-to-date performance of the market, but just a few sectors gave it their all. Materials and Utilities contributed a tad, up 3% and 2% respectively. Real estate stocks gained +10%, Industrials, +12%,  Communications, +13%. The other laggards were HealthCare, +2%, and Staples, +4%. Technology stocks at +23% bailed out the losers. Energy stocks were even for April, which led to our under-performance of the Model Portfolio, as we held them in April (1st quarter they gained +37% whem we owned them in Feb and March). The quick dislike in energy and Gold, and money flows into technology and the above mentioned caught us (and many) off-guard in our allocations for April.

Gold fell 1.5% in April and Silver fell 2.2%. For the past year, Gold followed stocks higher, then in March that changed; Gold tanked lower as stocks continued up. These metals are super volatile short term. Of note: the late March low in Gold near $4,380 was breached briefly early, early Thursday morning (12:30 a.m.) at $4,366, then - in a ballistic move - trended up for the rest of the trading day, adding $140 to a close of $4,507 in spot market trading at 6:00 pm. Thursday! 

We'll hold the yellow metal via the ETF's GLD and SGOL in all client portfolios. Gold is still ahead $200/ounce for the year, a respectable +4.6% gain in about 5 months. Silver +6.5%. Our model portfolio gained a smallish +1.08% in April, far behind the +10.1% S&P 500 Index. Here are the results through April 30th. 

 Model January,   +4.19%          SP500, +1.47%
 Model February, +4.33%          SP500,  -0.86%
 Model March,     -4.72%           SP500,  -5.20% 
 Model April,       +1.08%          SP500,  +10.1%

 through 4/30/26  +4.69%          +4.998%  

 So the Model did not beat the 'market', but it was close. Just different paths to the same result. With 10-15% in cash most months, holding Gold, Silver, technology, and broad-based value indexes, and energy stocks. I will make my June selections on what to own this weekend, and report on all of May's numbers in a couple weeks.

Seems to me that this market is just begging for good news on the war-front to add to its gains as we close out May and enter June. 

Could higher interest rates and sticky oil prices be the catalyst to stop this rally? Will consumers cut back on spending this Summer?

Stay tuned, but don't fret over every little price blip up and down on your computer screens. 

Thanks for reading!

~Barry

 Wealth manager / advisor since 1982. 

 

Model Portfolio Performance, 1Q, 2026

March financial markets experience a downturn in prices, but 1st quarter performance is positive for our Model Portfolio.

Just when we were getting comfortable and expecting another advancing month for stock prices; (they did gain for 10 of the last 11 months), and KAPOW - prices fell rather quickly starting March 1st after war was announced on IRAN by the United States and Israel on February 28th. Markets (Stock, Bond, Commodity), do not like uncertainty, so many investors sold; and the selling reinforced even more selling. At the recent lows for this move down, stocks have declined between 8.6% and 10.2% in about 4 weeks, measured by the Dow and S&P 500, near 8.75% down, and NASDAQ which lost the 10.2%. 

All stock market indices I follow, (about 20), FELL in March, right near the 5% loss area. In a BIG one day rally to end March, stock  prices shot up 2.5% to 3.8% on March 31st, which mitigated the monthly losses by quite a bit.

Still, as the Dow and S&P 500 entered March with just 1% to 2% gains for the combined January-February period, March erased those gains and left them both negative to end the 1st quarter (January thru March).

Our model portfolio, as reported last blog post, built up a comfortable gain during January-February of +8.7%. The March decline of -4.72% still left our Model positive and UP 3.57% for the 1st quarter. So, I am pleased with that result.

Here is the table of the year-to-date tally. 
 Model January,   +4.19%          SP500, +1.47%
 Model February, +4.33%          SP500,  -0.86%
 Model March,     -4.72%           SP500,  -5.20%

 The over-performance of the Model Portfolio was due to Gold and Silver rising in January and February. March gave back some of those gains, but not enough of them to turn the precious metals losers year-to-date. Recall that Gold ended last year at $4,308, then ended March at $4,670, so up by $360 or so.

What stood out from Gold's price action was that it FELL almost in line with stock prices when the war began. Gold did not aid performance during this period. It will not always move in the inverse direction from stocks; I've warned on that here in my blog.

My March Model Portfolio fell about at much as the S&P 500, because of Gold and Silver under-performing. In March it held Energy, Health Care and Industrial's are the SECTORS, and 15% cash.

As I finish this post here on Wednesday night April 8th, Gold has shot up over $100 an ounce in over-night trading, and is now hovering near $4,730.

I am keeping with the energy theme here in April, owning  also Materials, Utilities, and Gold and Silver, and a 20% allocation to cash or money market funds (or Treasury Bills) paying 3.4% to 3.6%.

I expect continued volatility in both stocks and commodities. The bigger question is: Are the low prices IN with the late March readings of 6,343 on the S&P 500 and $4,380 for Gold. The rallies of 7% and 8% off those lows has been swift. I'll be watching for signs that they hold before buying more.

Thanks for reading.

Warm Regards,

~Barry

 

 

 

 

 

2018 - 2025 Model Portfolio Performance

As promised last post, I've done the calcs on my Model Portfolio performance for last year, and wish to present this to all readers.

The end of last year, 2025 completed 8 years of using my model portfolio for investing, so the data covers 2018 through 2025. Here are the results in a table which I will discuss next. They are cumulative results over those time-frames.

  
 My model portfolio had an excellent 2025, up 23.15%. The fully invested S&P 500 that we compare against rose +27.6%. My table above also shows the 3, 5 and 8-year performances of Model vs. the market. 

The goal of my model portfolio is to offer investors a diversified way to allocate their money to attempt to achieve positive returns over time, outpacing inflation to grow their money, without a large draw-down in principle. Constructing portfolios for over 40 years for all types of investors, I'll state that this 'system' should suit 90% of all investors who can bear some risk with their principal. It should be used with other investments and savings based outside of this using your risk profile.

The S&P 500 gained more than my model portfolio in all time periods, as the stock market rose quite a bit over that time; up 150% in 8 years. My model rose +96%. My model portfolio normally holds three types of investments each month; Stocks, Bonds and Gold. It also owns cash that is not invested in the three assets. 

So usually, in an up market period, the Model will lag the stock market, depending on the performance of the bonds and Gold. This diversification aids in the smoothing out of the Models performance, so as not to experience big price swings up and draw-down. In a down market, the model portfolio usually declines less, or even gains - due to its cash and bond holdings. Also, Gold tends to move opposite stocks in down (bear) markets, offsetting stock losses.

That leads to the next point I mentioned in the last paragraph; draw-down. What does this look like? The table below shows the results of my diversified Model portfolio vs. the all stock S&P 500 Index. 

There were three notable periods in the 8-years with substantial sell-offs in stock prices; ranging from -14% to -20% on a monthly ending basis. The largest draw-down on a monthly basis was -6% to -12%. So what's the big deal you say? When you lose 20% of your values - on paper - you tend to make 'foolish' decisions; like selling out. That $500,000 nest egg is now a $400,000 one in just three months in early 2020.

The math to get back to even bears another salient stat. A 12% loss needs a +13.6% gain to get back to even. A 20% decline needs a +25% gain to get back to even. Some bear market's prior to 2020 have been more severe, but I don't have data on that to compare with my model portfolio.

The summary lesson here is to lessen the risk of owning stocks by owning other investments that are less correlated with stocks; like bonds and Gold. 

Being up 150% in 8 years sounds like a no-brainer accomplishment by just owning the S&P 500 Index and never selling IF you have the stomach for the draw-downs. A more balanced approach to consider is diversification around your stock holdings to reduce risk, smaller draw-downs, some liquidity for withdrawals, and a better nights sleep. On an annual compound growth basis, here's the tally.

 S&P 500 Index;  +12.14% average annual growth
 Model Portfolio;  + 8.80%  average annual growth

Call it +9% model vs. +12% S&P in round numbers. Inflation averaged +3.47% per year over the 8 years, so both showed positive gains after consumer price rises were factored in.

I hope this helps you understand my Model Portfolio strategy better.

I'll try to update this every 3 months or so on this blog. 

Thanks for reading!

~Barry

P.S. January was a banner month here to start 2026; My Model gained +4.19% vs. the S&P 500 at +1.47%, chiefly due to the big rise in Gold and Silver prices on those investments held in the model portfolio. February calculations are not ready just yet; I'll report them end of March to sum up the 1st quarter of this year.

This is my 154th blog post in 20 years, having started on Google blogger in December, 2005. The Dow Industrial Average stood at 10,717 back then! Time flies they say!

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My Year-end Financial Thoughts, Performance

The year is quickly coming to a close, and Christmas and Holiday planning is taking center stage this week and into the New Year. Wall Street is giving investors a little more joy also.

For investors, the gifts have come early and often, as the stock, bond and commodity markets have all risen in this final 3 months. If next week just holds steady in the stock market, gains in the +15% to +19%, to +22% should hold for the major averages: Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite respectively. That'll cap off the third year of double-digit gains!

 

In the 4th quarter (October - December) thus far stocks have risen just slightly in the 3.5% to 4.8% range using the above averages noted. Sector wise, most sectors followed that pattern of the general market. Healthcare is up 12% so far, an outlier for sure.

What's made us the most money has been Gold and Silver, via the Exchange Traded Funds we own that hold physical bullion. Gold has added +16% here in the quarter, while Silver has run like a scalded dog; up 53% in price since October 1st. 

 

Our model portfolio*, last reported on in my November 4th post with October's numbers, experienced a nice November gain of +2.10%, due to the Gold/Silver fund we owned, ticker CEF, up 11% in November.
 
Then, I was fortunate for December to replace CEF with both of the pure play funds GLD (gold), and SLV (silver), favoring Silver (15%) over Gold (5%). 

Call it smarts or good luck, silver has greatly outperformed Gold here in December; it ran from $56 to $60, then through $70 earlier this week to register a +26% gain - just this month. Gold is up +6.6%, so it's no slouch either. With a combined 20% of assets in Gold/Silver combined now, this is the difference maker to end the year.  

 

I'll report on the full year 2025 in my next post in January, but for the November - December model performance, it is at +6.8%, and that's versus the all stock S&P 500 Index's gain of +0.86%. A quick back-of-the-napkin calculation shows that I will beat the stock market (S&P 500) substantially this year with the Gold / Silver investments doing the heavy lifting. And holding 10-20% in cash or T-bills most of this year reduced the risks also if stocks and gold both fell. 

We'll see what 2026 holds. The Fed's 0.25% interest rate cut Dec. 10th was a confidence booster to traders, but there is lots to consider/worry on also; like a possible Government shutdown (again) next month, renewed inflation, sticky +6% mortgage rates, soon to report first quarter corporate earnings, geo-politics to name a few.

Wishing you a safe and fun Christmas tomorrow, joy and happiness to you and your loved ones, and a healthy New Year !

~Barry Unterbrink
Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor, since 1998

 * a model portfolio is a guideline portfolio of securities set up to gauge performance over a period of time. It often cannot be followed exactly by all investors due to the timing of buys and sells, tax and liquidity considerations. My model portfolio starts each month with $100,000 in assets, distributed across Cash, stocks, bonds and commodities. It was launched 1/1/2018 by my late father Larry.

 

 

   

An October-phobia Treat this Year

October's officially in the "books" and it's a relief among investors that it ended quite well.

When the numbers settled last Friday, the stock market (Dow Jones) gained +2.6% for October, while the Nasdaq stocks rose +4.8%. The S&P 500 Index, used more by the professional money managers, gained half of that, coming in at +2.4%. October's are well-known for their poor performances, but not this year ! 

The most notable October beating was the 1929 Crash that started the Great Depression, where the stock market FELL 89% in 34 months, starting that October 24th - Black Thursday. Back then the Dow Jones Industrial's and Transportation Indexes were the two used and widely quoted. It fell from Dow 381 to Dow 41 ending in the Summer of 1932, - ouch! 

In more recent times, October's have yielded some big falls, and also some big rallies. The October sell-offs include 1978, 1979, 1987* and 2008 as the housing crisis got underway in that last year. However, some of the most powerful market rallies started also in October; such as in 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2011, and the recent market bottom in October 2022 at Dow 28,660. J.P. Morgan Asset management's study reveals that the S&P 500's best days occurred within 2 week's of the 10 worst days using 2005-2025 data. This should illustrate the dangers of market timing; especially during October's. 

The 2022 market low is regarded as the start of this current secular bull market, where stock prices have shot up 66% in three years (Dow Jones) and almost a double, +96% for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

Our Model Portfolio** for October tacked on +1.60% in gains. The S&P 500 gained +2.4% as noted above. Aiding in that result was our continued owning of technology stocks via ETF's, +6.4%, and the foreign stock ETF (symbol EFA) rising +1.2%. Our Gold / Silver combo ETF gained +1.58% also. The detractors were Communication Services, -0.50%, and Consumer Discretionary ETF, down 0.2%. Our 10% holding in cash or money funds was a detractor, but is warranted as we rarely are 100% invested, and keep some money on the sidelines in case we need it. The six month Treasury bill was auctioned off at 3.70% on Monday, a continued good home for your cash not invested. 

The important earnings reports out last week changed the landscape a bit. Amazon and Nvidia out-paced expectations, rising in price; while Microsoft and META (Facebook) had muddled results that hit their share prices. These companies, along with Tesla, Google and Apple are the heavy-weights of the market, and their health and profitability is super important to the overall stock market's health. 

Chart below: 3 year Performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Stocks 

They're referred to as the MAG-7, short for Magnificent 7.  These 7 are included in many market indexes and mutual funds also that have technology holdings. If you own stock funds in your retirement plan, I bet you own a few of them.

Gold and Silver continued their historic runs in the third quarter, rising to new highs in mid-October with Gold reaching $4,356 and Silver touching $54.24 the ounce. Then both metals corrected 8% and 10% respectively to settle October a bit lower than that. Still, Gold gained $555 in the 3rd quarter, and is ahead a glittering $1,388 /ounce in 10 months. Silver ran past $50.00, a new all time high dating back to it's prior high near $50 in 2011. Probably not a bad idea to look around in your jewelry box for scrap Gold and Silver, as it's a buyers market now (good for sellers).

2025 has been a blessing to investors with stocks and Gold / Silver rising so much. We advocate to take some profits in them if their value has risen above your allocations set up in your portfolio(s). 

WHAT'S NOT to WORRY ABOUT?

Corporate earnings are hitting the news-wires for the September quarter, and about 80% of them are reported so far. 2/3rds have reported earnings that are ahead of expectations, beating estimates. The Federal Reserve CUT short term interest rates last week, their second rate cut this year. Although inflation is coming down a bit (+3% year-over-year) in the last report, longer term rates - used for loans and mortgages - are not declining much. 30-year mortgage loans are still above 6%; 6.17% last week.

The largest market decline this year was in early April of about 14%; and that was very short-lived. Money manager's performance may lag behind the market gains if they sold out some shares back then. Stocks are now at about +16% so far this year; through October 31. Our performance noted in the footnote is in line with the market. Momentum / new highs get folks in the market via F.O.M.O., (Fear of Missing Out). There's also about $7 Trillion dollars sitting in cash and money market funds that's not invested, so that may enter the market also to find a home. 

These are catalysts to propel stocks higher. Some events / catalysts will come upon us to change this good fortune. They always do. I'll keep you alerted!

So, my advice is to keep over half your money in stocks, diversify around the Sectors we hold now; Technology, Communications, Industrial ETF's, 10% - 15% in Gold / Silver, and 10-15% in short term cash or government short term debt.

Thanks for Reading, and be Safe.
Until Next Post, 

~Barry 
Unterbrink@usa.net

*The 1987 Crash is still clear in my mind, as my father was managing pension fund money then, along with my help; 10/19/87; the largest one-day percentage drop in stock prices in history for the Dow Jones; -508 points, or -22.8%.  

** Our Model Portfolio Performance, 2025 Thru 10/31/25; +16.26%

Summer Rally Intact; A 10 Bagger in Gold

The stock market shrugged off the malaise of the early year under-performance that when stock prices fell about 7% in the January - April period. The S&P 500 Index is used in this post for the stock market comparisons.

Aside from the early April short-lived Trump tariff tantrum as some called it, the event was a non-starter for the bears, as stocks recovered quickly. April showed a mere 1% loss. Then May thru August strung together a big rally as prices rose all 4 months; a total of +16% ! The average (mean) gain for this period the past 5 years (2021-2025) was +8.9%, a full 7% lower than 2025. 

Our model portfolio that we track each month since 2018 is also 'holding its own' against the stock market. Each month it holds cash/bonds, stocks, and Gold/Silver investments in varying allocations, so it won't match the stock market normally in rising markets - but it won't fall as much in ugly bear markets. Year-to-date thru August, our model is ahead +8.5%, vs the stock market's +9.8%. 

Our September model holdings include Technology, Industrials and Communications stocks in the form of exchange-traded funds, or ETF's for short, which are baskets of stocks that hold many positions in those sectors. We also hold 15% in cash earning about 4%, and 20% in Gold/Silver. Silver and Gold were about even in July, then shot up last month +7% and +5% respectively. We like Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust, ticker CEF, which holds 70% in gold bullion, and 30% in silver bars. The shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange and the Toronto Canada stock exchange. You could Buy GLD and SLV as alternative separate investments if you want a pure play in Gold or Silver, respectively. With such diversification, a portfolio mix like this is suitable for most investors.

My 10 Bagger in Gold

A 10-bagger is an investment that has increased 10 times, or +900%. They are somewhat rare, and actually finding one and realizing that gain is difficult. I'll say that either you're taking tremendous risks and are very lucky, or you are a long-term investor, which reduces your chance of failure a lot. Some popular stocks that have been 10-baggers, and the time to reach that status as of today's pricing: Apple, 9 years; Tesla, 6 years, Microsoft, 10 years, Meta (Facebook); 11 years. Mutual Funds are familiar to us all as a way to diversify your risks of owning stocks. Most mutual funds buy and sell stocks, and have turnover of 40-50-60% each year. That's a difficult way to get a 10-bagger as their ownership is a short period of time in mutual funds. Individual stocks have the greatest chance of a 10-bagger; but the ride can be harrowing along the way. 

My Dad was a silver bullion dealer in the mid-1970's in addition to his money management business started in 1973. He bought a couple hundred ounces of silver bars and 1 ounce round coins for his personal stash; I have a few of them still. He gifted my children some silver bars in the 1990's after their births; about $500.00 each then. I got tired of moving the bars around and storing them in safekeeping. I decided to trade the silver bars for 3 ounces of Gold in 1997. I paid $358 an ounce for 3 'rounds' of South African 1 ounce Krugerrands. Here's two of them.

My trade worked out a bit better than holding the Silver bars - at least so far. May, 1997 through yesterday. 

GOLD  $358 to $3,640 today, up 10 times
Silver  $4.87 to $41.00 today, up 8.4 times

Since Gold and Silver pay no interest or dividends, they are at a disadvantage to owning a stock or a bond which do pay interest and dividends.

So what did stocks do over that 28+ year time-frame? They did outperform after including dividends payments added to the mix. 

 The S&P 500 Index rose 14.8 times during that time; quite a bit more as you held 100% stocks, collecting dividends along the way. That was enough for a +10% average gains per year; Gold's was +8.5% and Silver +7.8%. Important point; both stocks and Gold have experienced sizable bear (down markets); Gold prices declined in 9 of the 28 years; 1/3rd of the time, while stocks had losses in 7 years, 25% of the time.

So the lesson here after all this number crunching? Be an owner of stocks and Gold/Silver if you want to grow your estate and investments over long periods of time, and have some cash on hand if an opportunity presents itself. If the 8.5% rise in Gold continues, the next 10-bagger would occur in 28 years; year 2053 at $36,500. President Nixon took America off the Gold standard in 1971. The $35/ounce Gold to Dollar convertiblilty ended; and Gold skyrocketed. Fast forward to my 1997 Gold buy, 26 years later at $358, and that's a 10-bagger. I think I see a pattern here.  

Hopefully some of you reading this can then share my story, and yours with your children and/or grand-children some day.

Thanks for reading; pass it along if you found this helpful.

~Barry  

 

 

 

 

 

 

First Half Results - Handicapping Rest of Year

 

General Stock Market Commentary, 2^nd Quarter and Year-to-Date, 6/30/25

Stock prices generally fell during the 1^st quarter; between 4% for the S&P 500 and down 10% for the Nasdaq stocks. The Dow Jones lost 1%. Then the
landscape changed.

If you were out-of-touch or asleep for all of April, you would not have noticed the tumultuous month starting the 2^nd quarter as President Trump announced his initial trade tariffs on April 2^nd. The quick 12% sell-off in stock prices lasted just 5 trading days! The monster stock rally of +10% on April 9^th should show you that timing the market accurately is very difficult.

April ended about break-even for stocks (S&P 500 down 1%). The paper losses have now been erased, and stock prices had a superb May and June. With those ups and downs, stocks are ahead +6% this year through June 30^th.

Bonds likewise had a wild ride post tariff maneuvering but are essentially unchanged since year-end as of June 30^th. The 10-year Treasury yield only declined 1/3rd of 1% this year to 4.22%. The Federal Reserve is not compelled to lower interest rates, while inflation and employment numbers continue to improve. The results of the tariffs have not translated to higher inflation in the US Economy - yet. The last Fed interest rate cut was last November, and the stock market has advanced about 5% since then. I would keep cash not invested in shorter term (3-6 month) U.S. Treasury bills or money market accounts; those pay 4% to 4.3% annually, and have been steady income for all of 2025. Warren Buffet’s Bershire Hathaway company owns $328 Billion of US Treasury debt in their last reporting. Let’s follow Warren!

In the commodity area, Gold continues to add to its gains from last year. It was up $500 an ounce in the 1^st quarter, and then added $180 more in the April - June stretch. That’s $680 by my calculation, or +27% so far this year, greatly helping your portfolios. No major stock category (sector) beat Gold this year; the closest challengers were Industrial’s, +11%, Telecom, +10%, Utilities, +9%, and Financials (banks), +9%. I’ve harped on this for 10+ years now, and continue to believe a weighting in Gold, or the precious metal investments that own physical Gold, can offset risks in the stock and bond markets. Three years ago; Gold was $2,000 or so; 5-years ago, near $1,700. Gold prices ended June at $3,303 per ounce. As I pen this on 7/21; Gold's within a dollar or two from $3,400!

What’s in store here as we enter the third quarter? Earnings are in focus now. Can they deliver as expected, or beat the estimates? First quarter numbers were fabulous. Management’s commentary on the second quarter results, and for the rest of the year will no doubt impact share prices up or down.

Then there’s the Federal Reserve’s decision – on if and when to lower interest rates. Inflation has been declining steadily for 3+ years (see chart for year-over-year inflation), signaling broad labor market stability.

 

Will the recently passed "Big Beautiful Bill" and its tax policy ignite our economy and raise the tax revenue, or will the tariffs offset or mitigate those benefits? 

As I say, there’s always something to worry about with the stock market, bond market, and other investments.

Controlling my anxiety and handicapping this all are my goals; in effect, I am a financial odds-maker, to benefit my family and my clients. 

Contact me if you have questions or comments.

~Barry
(954) 560-3622.