All Cylinders Firing in November's Market Rally

Stock, Bond and Gold prices continue to rise since my last post November 6th.

The October inflation report came in below most estimates. The headline inflation was ZERO from the prior month, a big relief that prices were not going higher. Year-over-year inflation registered +3.2%.

Oil and gasoline prices fell. Rent and shelter costs did rise 0.3% and was a drag on the inflation result since shelter costs comprise about 1/3rd of the Consumer Price Index. Oil prices have fallen back to the mid - $70's now. Gasoline prices likewise fell below $3.00 at the pump, and have fallen about 20% since their mid-September highs.

The last two Federal Reserve no-hike decisions on interest rates was welcomed news. The last hike was July 26th, so many market observers think there's a good chance they are done hiking. That would signal that the Fed thinks inflation will abate even with no more interest rate hikes. They could be wrong on that though and forced to re-adjust rates.

The stock and bond markets loved the news! Stocks rose the most in 18 months in November. Interest rates fell a lot, signalling investors BUYING more debt, showing confidence that yields have peaked. Stock investors, looking now into 2024, see more clearly that the economy can reinvigorate and earnings will pick up; thus increasing corporate profits.

Stock prices on the big indexes, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials rose +5.5% and +6% respectively since Nov. 6th. As of last Friday's closing, the Dow Jones is just 718 points below its all-time high set back in early 2022. Dow 36,800 will be a record high there.

Bonds did not leave the party early either. When interest rates FALL, bond prices RISE. Bonds of all stripes rallied into late November; 2.5% to 7% in prices, depending on the maturity and quality. Shorter term, investors can get 5.1% to 5.3% annual yield in less than one year Treasury Bills today. That's above the recent inflation (cited above); a good spot to park money not invested now-a-days.

Gold. War, Politics, Safety-seeking; name your worry. Gold climbed to a multi-year high on Friday, near $2,072/ounce. It gained $250/ounce since the Israeli war started. Then, weekend trading in the SPOT market saw prices rise to $2,130 briefly. Gold prices closed 2022 at $1,825.That's good enough for a +13% gain.

It's not too common for Stocks, Bonds and Gold to all move in the same direction - up or down. The November - April period of the year is favorable for stock prices vs the May - October period, so we'll see if that plays out this year into 2024.

The November inflation report is due out next week, Dec.12th. We'll handicap that for you. I'll post again in a few days with some year-end moves to make with your taxes.

Do contact me should you have a question or need further advice on the topics I write about.

Barry Unterbrink
Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor
(954) 560-3622
Unterbrink@usa.net

 
 

Market's Update: Gloom then Euphoria

Three Month Fall in Stock Prices Ends with Powerful November Rally

August, September and October were not kind to stock or bond investors. Bond prices fell, and the US inflation reports were some-what in line with expectations, yet not enough of a downturn for investors to feel comfortable, with increased interest rate decisions possible by the Federal Reserve.

Over the August through October period, the S&P 500 Index fell 8-1/2 percent, while interest rates rose almost one full percent (on the 10-year Treasury Security). The ’soft-landing’ of the U.S. economy, where inflation would abate, interest rates would stop increasing, and labor and housing price increases would moderate – seemed far, far off.

This chart is the interest rate investors can obtain on the Government Ten Year Treasury Note. It's a one year chart. 

Just last week, investor pessimism changed almost overnight. The Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell spoke optimistically about the economy’s progress in his Nov. 1st speech, and decided NOT to hike interest rates – for the second time this year.

Also on that day, non-farming payrolls decreased a lot more than expected, and the unemployment rate edged up to 3.9% from 3.8%. You read that right. More folks not working is actually good for the Fed’s mandate to tame price inflation.

Investors cheered the news mid-week, and poured money into almost every sector of the stock and bond markets. Stocks had their best week of the year, adding between 5% and 7% in the popular indices. With the prospect of interest rates falling further, investor’s rushed into bonds to lock in juicy yields.

Gains of 2-3% were seen in bond prices last week; a huge move that is experienced just a few times in such a short span of time. If you sat out the summer doldrums in the stock market (since the late July highs), you may have avoided some losses, but that strategy meant you needed another decision when to buy stocks again. That’s very difficult to handicap. Last week’s rise in the S&P 500 stock index of 5.85% essentially erased 70% of the losses in the three months (August-October). That’s a lesson to not to try to time the market. Allocation of your money among stocks-bond-Gold and Cash is a preferred strategy so you always have some asset that should give you profits.

Our old pal and portfolio investment Gold got October off to a bang after the Israeli war started, but sat out last week’s rally, rising less than one-percent. But, Gold added $180 an ounce – to - $2,000 in the three weeks after the October 7^th Hamas attacks. Gold bullion rose 7% in value in October, cushioning your stock and bond losses. We recommend at least a 10% allocation to Gold investments or the bullion itself in portfolios as insurance against political unrest and other unforseens. 

Next week’s October inflation report, due out 11/14 morning, should provide more valuable data on the effects of interest rates and jobs, hopefully tampering down price rises a bit more, and raising expectations more for both stock and bond investor’s - and the dollar value of your retirement account and other investments also.

I'll say have a safe Thanksgiving if I don't hear from you or post again before then.

~Barry

Long Term Care Insurance - Required in Florida Some Day Soon?

Could you be forced to buy Long-Term Care Insurance in Florida soon? Is there any precedent for this? Is Medicaid slowly going broke with little money to fund Long-Term Care?

America’s Entitement programs are out of control in this author’s opinion. Federal spending for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are enormous drags on our fiscal health. The programs have promised a lot more than they can deliver, as each legislative decision seems to liberalize the benefits even more.

The 2023 Social Security Trustees Report shows the program being able to pay just 77% of scheduled benefits starting in 2033, one year earlier than the last report. Medicare will run short in its funding also in just 4-5 years.

There are many myths out there regarding LTC; what it covers, and what Medicare does not cover. Virtually no long term care services are covered by Medicare. Nursing and Custodial care is provided after hospital stays covered by Medicare Insurance for a limited time, but not on-going care in your home or a non-hospital facility.

Who Qualifies for Medicaid?

Basically, if you can’t afford to take care of yourself health-wise, and have little money to hire others to do so, you become a ward of the State and could qualify for Medicaid, the jointly funded program between the states and Federal Government. Once certified, you will normally go to a ‘facility’ that can feed you, house you, and medicate you. Medicaid will use your Social Security benefits to pay your costs, and then use the program funds to pay the difference. Long Term Care insurance planning helps you pay for those expenses – partially or fully – so you don’t use all your estate assets, and/or go bankrupt and be forced to go on Medicaid after that.

Long Term Care is an EVENT, not a PLACE. Not being able to dress, bathe, eat, walk, transfer or use the bathroom usually qualifies you for LTC benefits  (2 or more of the above activities minimum). Cognitive diseases such as Alzheimers, Dementia, or Parkinson’s also would give you the green light to qualify. LTC insurance enables you to stay in your home while receiving skilled care -or even family care - also.

Many of the State budgets are in much better shape than the U.S. Federal budget. To get a ‘data-rush’ on all this, head over to https://USDebtClock.org  Use the link at the upper left to find your state’s data.

I live in Florida, so I’m using that as my example. Plus, Florida is a large state, with 22 million residents, many of them retired and likely to use Medicare or Medicaid services. About 1 in 6 American’s live in either California or Florida; that’s 62 million people. The U.S. Debt Clock shows 64 million social security recipients and 85 million people on Medicaid in America…HUH? Eighty-Five million! One in every 4 American’s are on the dole in the Medicaid program!

             WASHINGTON’S LONG TERM CARE PROGRAM

The Washington State plan, enacted in 2021, set forth a maximum $36,500 lifetime LTC benefit, with other stipulations on age and residency. Their thinking; $100/day benefit for one year. A $100,000 wage earner without a LTC plan in force pays $580/year in taxes to support those collecting LTC. A small dollar amount, but a smallish benefit. Eight million people reside in Washington State.

Last year, California started the ball rolling and established the Long Term Care Insurance Task Force to formulate a worker-funded LTC plan of their own. Here is an excerpt from their Department of Insurance:

Long Term Care Insurance Task Force: The passage of AB 567 (Calderon) established the Long Term Care Insurance Task Force (Task Force) in the California Department of Insurance to explore the feasibility of developing and implementing a culturally competent statewide insurance program for long-term care services and supports.

They want to learn and improve on the Washington State plan for their 40 million citizenry. Insurance insiders tell me the California plan may have up to a 1% payroll tax, with a 2024 launch date. Washington State’s rate was set up at 0.58% of taxable payroll. Pensions, capital gains and other income is not included, just earned income.

Florida is run pretty well under our current legislature. Debt to GDP is about 11%, about the same as Washington State. But Florida is still running a deficit of about $77 Billion a year – last report. Florida's Medicaid budget is $28 Billion, and going into the red this next fiscal year.
Are you starting to see the possibility of some type of Florida LTC plan getting traction?

Tax More or Spend Less

A State managed Long Term Care insurance plan would also give the states much more control over their money since the Federal Government – I assume – would have little say in how to allocate the money to those in need. They could then also share the costs of the current Medicaid program with the Feds, as they now do.

The Florida legislature would have to determine the rules, the potential future claims, and the funding necessary to make it viable and fair for both taxpayers and beneficiaries.

Perhaps Florida brings back the state “intangibles tax”, or some other tax to fund the program. It won't likely have juicy benefits that a private insurer would offer for more money, but it's a start to help those chronically ill get some assistance and have many taxpayers as stakeholders in this important and costly event most of us will someday use.

With the aging of America from the Baby Boomer’s retiring at about 10,000 folks a day, this Medicaid mess in unlikely to get better anytime soon. I look for more states to take LTC matters into their own hands as the Federal Medicaid Program may not be able to stay alive much longer funding millions of residents for years in assisted-living and nursing home facilities. See the current status of state's legislation at the end.

The Hazards of Waiting

The sooner you get LTC coverage, the cheaper it is, like most types of insurance. Plus, you never know when you will need it; age 55, 60, 82?

The Washington State LTC plan, when announced in 2021 resulted in tens of thousands of applications to life insurance companies that write LTC policies,  that they had to stop accepting new business for 6-7 months!

For a quick comparison quote, I ran a $3,000 a month benefit for a healthy 55 year old male, with a $108,000 pool of money lasting 3 years. The cost is $221/month.
The Death Benefit to his heirs if no LTC used; $72,000, with a 3% compound inflation on the initial $3,000 benefit built in.  Refund of premium can be added at no cost if you wish to cancel the policy.

A 50 year-old woman would pay $181/month. Surf over to this link for an interactive LTC quote for your area of the country: https://tinyurl.com/5n7xktn3

Do you have life insurance that no longer suits its initial goal? Exchange it for an LTC policy.

I believe in this type of coverage for you or your loved ones. I’ve owned my hybrid policy for 2.5 years now, and see the cash value growing each month and can rest assured with every medical report / check-up that should I need my LTC money, it will be there for me each month.

Forward this to those who may benefit from this retirement planning advice, please.
For a more accurate quote for yourself, contact me.

I'll circle back when I hear more news on the California and potential Florida LTC plans.

~Barry
(954) 560-3622

UPDATE from my 9/14/23 Post: Here is list of states that are in the process of LTC discussion or legislation: Discussion: AK, NC, IL, ME, MA, MI, NH, OR, VT.  Progressing legislation: CA, MN, NY. In-force now: WA

I am licensed to provide LTC insurance to my clients using stand-alone and hybrid LTC insurance solutions. I have been full-time active and licensed in the retirement planning field since 1993.