Model Portfolio Performance, 1Q, 2026

March financial markets experience a downturn in prices, but 1st quarter performance is positive for our Model Portfolio.

Just when we were getting comfortable and expecting another advancing month for stock prices; (they did gain for 10 of the last 11 months), and KAPOW - prices fell rather quickly starting March 1st after war was announced on IRAN by the United States and Israel on February 28th. Markets (Stock, Bond, Commodity), do not like uncertainty, so many investors sold; and the selling reinforced even more selling. At the recent lows for this move down, stocks have declined between 8.6% and 10.2% in about 4 weeks, measured by the Dow and S&P 500, near 8.75% down, and NASDAQ which lost the 10.2%. 

All stock market indices I follow, (about 20), FELL in March, right near the 5% loss area. In a BIG one day rally to end March, stock  prices shot up 2.5% to 3.8% on March 31st, which mitigated the monthly losses by quite a bit.

Still, as the Dow and S&P 500 entered March with just 1% to 2% gains for the combined January-February period, March erased those gains and left them both negative to end the 1st quarter (January thru March).

Our model portfolio, as reported last blog post, built up a comfortable gain during January-February of +8.7%. The March decline of -4.72% still left our Model positive and UP 3.57% for the 1st quarter. So, I am pleased with that result.

Here is the table of the year-to-date tally. 
 Model January,   +4.19%          SP500, +1.47%
 Model February, +4.33%          SP500,  -0.86%
 Model March,     -4.72%           SP500,  -5.20%

 The over-performance of the Model Portfolio was due to Gold and Silver rising in January and February. March gave back some of those gains, but not enough of them to turn the precious metals losers year-to-date. Recall that Gold ended last year at $4,308, then ended March at $4,670, so up by $360 or so.

What stood out from Gold's price action was that it FELL almost in line with stock prices when the war began. Gold did not aid performance during this period. It will not always move in the inverse direction from stocks; I've warned on that here in my blog.

My March Model Portfolio fell about at much as the S&P 500, because of Gold and Silver under-performing. In March it held Energy, Health Care and Industrial's are the SECTORS, and 15% cash.

As I finish this post here on Wednesday night April 8th, Gold has shot up over $100 an ounce in over-night trading, and is now hovering near $4,730.

I am keeping with the energy theme here in April, owning  also Materials, Utilities, and Gold and Silver, and a 20% allocation to cash or money market funds (or Treasury Bills) paying 3.4% to 3.6%.

I expect continued volatility in both stocks and commodities. The bigger question is: Are the low prices IN with the late March readings of 6,343 on the S&P 500 and $4,380 for Gold. The rallies of 7% and 8% off those lows has been swift. I'll be watching for signs that they hold before buying more.

Thanks for reading.

Warm Regards,

~Barry