Model Portfolio Update, Third Quarter

Here's my Model Portfolio Performance through September 30th, 2026. My last update included the June - July period, so see that post for information.

Here are the Model Portfolio results through September 30th.

 Model January,    +4.19%          SP500, +1.47%
 Model February,  +4.33%          SP500,  -0.86%
 Model March,      -4.72%           SP500,  -5.20% 
 Model April,        +1.08%          SP500,  +10.1%
 Model May,         + 0.78%         SP500,  + 5.26%
 Model June,         +0.02%          SP500,   -1.28%
 Model July,          -1.16%           SP500,   +0.03%
 Model August,     +3.06%          SP500,    +2.68%
 Model Sept.          -4.36%          SP500,    -0.58%

 through 9/30/26  + 2.81%          + 11.41%  

 As you can see, the third quarter was a real set-back for our
 Model Portfolio, as it lost 2.57% while the S&P 500 index gained 2.12%. That swing, along with the April-May under-performance, resulted in the near +3% gain year-to-date vs. the +11% for the large stock index. 

This chart comes in a bit small, but it shows the S&P 500 (dashed line), along with the sectors of Energy (red), Communications (gray), the Dow Jones (purple), Technology (blue) and Gold (gold). For the nine months, only Energy and Technology sectors are beating the overall S&P 500 index, and three of 11 sectors are losing money: Financials, Utilities, and Consumer Discretionary. So it's a narrowly focused performance thus far.

Since we hold cash - between 15% and 20% each month; we have lagged the market. Gold prices have not helped this year also, after being huge contributors the last 3 years.

With one day left in October's trading, it's a bit better this month. Money-flows into more defensive sectors is paying off. We added Health Care and Biotech to our model this month (up +9.6% and +4% respectively this month). Also, commodities (other than precious metals), are on the rise. Copper, Tin, Aluminum, Soybeans, Oats, Wheat to name a few. DBC is the Invesco Commodity Fund which tracks them all with one investment. DBC is +4% this month.

The mid-term elections present uncertainty with the direction politically. I suspect that either way, once that's over - markets will perk up again (to the upside). The November - May seasonality of the performance favors this. No guarantees, of course.

Be safe for Halloween, and thanks for reading.

~Barry